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Monday, August 29, 2011

How to deal with FAILURE !

Depression, disappointment, fear of failure, worry, tension, nervousness, anxiety....all these negative emotions are results of a simple fact that we always want our life to go according to our plans, decisions and simply rate our success or failure based on whether we could do what we planned or not.

If you study yourself or the people around you, you will realize this. Somebody would be sad because they lost money (which they did not expect), some others would be dejected in life because they could not marry their loved ones (again against their expectations), some would be disappointed because their boss took away the credit deserved by these poor souls (they expected the credit and recognition), they went unnoticed (when they tried hard to impress somebody), their plans got delayed (career, marriage, childbirth - which they expected to happen in certain time frame) or take any instance of disappointment, the underlying point is THEY EXPECTED SOMETHING WHICH DID NOT HAPPEN; and they hence came to the conclusion that they failed in something or they were incapable. So the basic definition of success and happiness have been completely misunderstood

SOLUTION: Just ask yourself, if something didn't happen accordingly, what is the worst that can happen ?

  • Money: If you lost money or incurred huge losses, what will happen ? Your lifestyle will be affected a bit, but whats the worst to happen ? You will come to streets. Nothing more can happen due to lack of money. If you come to streets, then what ? You will have to start everything from scratch, can't you ? You can, because you are not 75 yrs old, you have an entire life ahead of you and you can build your life again with whatever knowledge, talent you have. May be if you invest 5-10 more years, you will again settle in the life and can spend some 30-40 more years after that. Can't you do that? This is a worst case scenario which usually wouldn't happen. If there is a solution even for the worst case, why are you so petrified of petty losses. Loss of hundreds, thousands or even millions is not a big deal, if you are made of will of steel. Read: How important is Money ?
  • Relationships: Do whatever you can to save a relationship, but if it is not working whats the worst to happen? You will lose the relationship, rapport, love and affection. That's bad but will our life end with that ? Definitely not. The pain will linger for maybe days, months or years in some cases. But life is much longer, unpredictable. Even if you take 5 years to heal from a bad relationship, that's perfectly OK. You will have 50 more years during which you will find people who will love you or care for you better than those you lost. Read: How to cope up with bad relationships
  • Humiliation: If you lose respect or importance or get humiliated before the whole world, then what ? Do you think the world around you is obsessed about you to keep thinking about you and how insulted you were ? They would remember your humiliation only when they see you the next time and tend to forget after you meet them 3-4 times. Even if they changed their opinion on you. SO WHAT ? In the lifetime to come, you will meet many more people, situations, circumstances where you would be appreciated and loved too. MOVE ON. Read: How not to care others' opinion on us !
  • Career: Do your best to succeed in your education and career. But what if you couldn't make it big. The world is so big and enterprising that people of every background and success levels have ample scope to live happily. Happiness is not directly proportional to educational qualifications, kind of job you are doing. The richest, most powerful, most educated people have their own set of insecurities, problems to deal with which you are not aware of. Read: How to make an entrepreneurial career !
  • Marriage: Most of the cases, the people subject to late marriages or childbirths are more worried about social pressure than about the reason itself. Do you know anybody in your vicinity who didn't get married for life (unless planned for celibacy or bachelorhood) ? NOBODY. Everybody will definitely get married and make babies whatsoever at some point of time. Sometimes it gets delayed by days, months or years but IT WILL HAPPEN with very few exceptions. Even if you fall under those exceptions, just come to terms with the reality and realize that the society will raise that topic once or twice, not every time you face them. You will have many more ways to compensate the issue, if any.
  • Death: You may have to face trauma before death and the duration of trauma depends of the kind of death. BUT the duration will definitely not be a lifetime. The maximum can be a couple of years. When you are expected to live some 80 years at an average, why worry much about those inevitable 2 years especially when you don't know when will that occur. So when it happens, you will not have a choice but to face the situation, so don't even acknowledge this factor and as Facebook status messages say "learn like you will live forever and live like you will die tomorrow". 78 remaining years are fun-filled.
  • Others: Now if you are ready for worst case scenarios in terms of money, love, career, marriage, kids, respect and even death. is there anything else that can worry you ??? :)

Just take a chill pill and live your life king (queen) size. Read: Rules to be Happy !

Now that we discussed about dealing with supposed "failures", lets have a sneak peak at the lsome success stories:

Do you think Mark Zuckerberg invented Facebook aiming to become a billionaire ? Do you think Columbus discovered USA expecting it would be a superpower today ? Did Gandhi, Martin Luther King, Mandela, Anna Hazare etc start their agitations expecting nationwide support ? You can take thousand more examples of inventions, discoveries, corporate powerhouses, success stories; most of them were unexpected "MERE ACCIDENTS". So success is very overrated. Overconfidence, arrogance, conceit are bad byproducts of overrating the concept of success.

Thomas Edison had to face hundreds of failures before he could invent a working model of electric bulb. When asked if he is disappointed with so many failures, he said, each time he failed, he understood the way to avoid in his next attempt. In this way he avoided 99 wrong ways to reach the right way by implementing rule of omissions. So realize failures are very important for us to know what not to do, keep us grounded, make us tougher. But failure is often underrated. Depression, disappointment, nervousness are bad byproducts of underrating and overemphasizing failure.

In this context, I would use a quote shared by one of my cousins:

"Do you remember the things you were worried about an year ago? How did they work out? Didn't you waste a lot of fruitless energy on account of most of them? Didn't most of them turn out all right after all?

No matter what happens, or how bad it seems today, life does go on, and it will be a better tomorrow. Don’t be too long crying over anything. Things you’re crying about right now maybe things you’ll be grateful for late...:)"

Bottom line: Success is overrated; failure is underrated and overemphasized. So after every failure ask yourself  "so, whats the worst that can happen ? don't I have age enough to start everything again ? can't I deal with that ?"

Monday, August 8, 2011

US Economy Crisis: Effects on common people in US, India, Canada

United States of America has long been considered as the most developed, advanced country, which is partly true but the country's prosperity we see in terms of infrastructure, roads, buildings, research & development etc or the kind of prosperity projected in Hollywood movies comes with a heavy...infact very heavy baggage which can be an unbearable burden to not only US but also many other countries of the world, and its a 100% truth when I say almost every person in 3/4th of the world would be affected in some way or other due to the current economic crisis in US; and most of the cases, its pure mayhem and bloodbath.

Most of the commoners who are not really conversant with economics, political situation, stock markets don't take this situation seriously until they face the heat themselves (which is now, very much impending). This post is written with an intention to inform beginners and laymen as what this US crisis may mean to them.

First things first: US is not as rich as it projects itself or as people perceive.Yearly revenue of US is around $2.5 trillion dollars and expenditure is around $4 trillion dollars. It means every year the deficit comes to around $1.5 trillion dollars and the current total unpaid debt is in the tune of $15 trillion dollars which is expected to go up gradually.

Another problem is that US' liquidity (cash amounts which can be used) is relatively very low and if US is forced to pay debts in large amounts, there is no way for US but to make a default or skip payments.

So three solutions for US to deal with this situation (if they ever want to deal with this problem) are:
  1. Dramatically reduce expenditure
  2. Skip payments - especially money owed to other countries
  3. Raise more money from public
All three are dangerous and hence as I said 3/4th of the population in the world will get affected in some way or other. Lets see why.

Reducing Expenditure:

It means a lot. All infrastructure projects, research activities, development activities should be brought to a pause if not a grinding halt. So the development will have to undergo a huge hibernation for sure. This may save some quick money for the government, but will result in huge negative effects. If US wants to cut costs, it will have to stop supporting a lot of industries, companies and hence a dramatic number of US residents can safely assume that they will be FIRED from their jobs.

If we think only US residents will get affected, go and to read this. US is a major trading partner with many nations of the world (including India, Canada - two countries which I represent). So if US pauses its development activities, it will invariably mean that it reduces its businesses with trading partners and hence other countries will loose a lot of income and hence industries will plunge into unprecedented losses.

The worst calamity from Indian perspective would be the software industry once again. Software industry is India is thriving only because its clients are in US. If US puts sanctions against its own companies, there is no way Indian software industry can be saved. Similarly all industries, businesses, companies, corporations which are directly dependent on US will have to take a nosedive. The same applies to Canada as Canada-US are not only major trading partners but also have free-trade agreements which will again take a bow. 
Bottom line: Loss in businesses which is directly proportional to huge cost cutting and hence loss of jobs.

Once software industry and all industries in India, Canada etc which are dependent on US fall badly, obviously, the purchasing power of people working in those industries will be reduced drastically and hence other businesses which are thriving because of such high spenders will take a blow. So its a cascading effect which can fall on almost every business and hence on most of the common people. So be ready for this ill-effect

Skipping Payments:



A bad idea but this can save US a lot of jobs and losses. But whose bills can US default is a million dollar question (or may be trillion dollars ;)). As mentioned earlier US is low on liquidity and all its developments are happening just because other countries are investing on US Government bonds and securities. China and Japan have invested around trillion dollars each in US because they could not find any other safe havens to park their wealth. Now no prizes for guessing who is in panic mode :)

As recent news articles scream, a credit agency Standard & Poor's has identified that US "may" default payments as its under heavy debt. US' credit rating has been downgraded from AAA to AA+ which shocked the entire world in general but China and Japan in particular. Now US and China are like two blind people guiding each other. If US defaults payments, China will suffer a lot and its imminent that Chinese economy will plummet bigtime. If China decides to take off its investments from US before US makes any bad decision, then it will cause a mayhem in US, the reason: Once China takes out its investments, other countries will follow but US doesn't have enough money to pay everybody. Then US treasury will be forced to turn its board and act like a fraud bank which cheats its account holders.


Also once China or any other country starts pulling off investments, the market frenzy will lower the value of those assets. Thus China, Japan and even Russia to an extent are playing with a double edged sword. The frustration could be easily seen when leaders of these countries lambasted US saying its a 'Parasite' :)

Raising more money from public:

This is the easiest for the Government of US to do so. But it means hell to US residents for sure. Higher (almost double) taxes, home mortgage prices, interest rates on car loans, personal lines, credit cards, more expensive products, services, cost of living. So more money to shell out to Government and less money for their own lifestyle. More corporate taxes will mean more expenditure on companies which will be transferred to employees through more income taxes, less benefits and most of the cases, loss of jobs. This opportunity can be exploited by some companies to get rid of employees though they don't need to.

So absolute scarcity of money among individuals, businesses, corporations means another RECESSION. Recent recession (2008-2009) caused some 20 million US residents to lose jobs and this time it will be worse because of the debt bogey, low confidence, international pressure. Recession also means ill cascading effecs on other countries like India (as mentioned earlier).

So truly US has become a parasite or white elephant on the whole world who went crazy with investments and over dependence on US. US has exploited the situation and has now held the world for ransom.

Worldwide Bloodbath

Now coming to stock investors, portfolio managers, mutual funders etc, they should get ready for the worst. Just a downgrading of S&P credit rating on US has triggered a massive plummet in almost all Asian markets, but Indian finance minister Pranab Mukherjee showed his bravado by saying India is ready to face any situation. But that's a silly assurance because US economy crisis can have a devastating effect on all major economies of the world.

Before explaining why, I just want to inform beginners that the value of any stock will decrease if more and more investors start selling and obviously the value will increase if a lot of investors start flocking to buy that stock. Now with US losing its credibility, major corporate or sovereign investors throughout the world will get more alert and would want to sell of their investments in safer markets just to neutralize losses incurred in US.

So once a major investor pulls its / his investments in other countries like India, it will trigger a panic reaction among other investors who will follow to do the same and hence all foreign investment corporations will start a selling spree thus reducing the value of their stocks (as explained above). Now when global investors show this no-confidence, immediately local investing companies and retail investors of that particular country will also follow the path and the entire market will be surrounded by those who want to sell their holdings which will trigger a massive dip in all stock exchanges across the world. Bombay Stock Exchange, Toronto Stock Exchange are no exemptions to this trends.

The only way to avoid this situation to happen is to hope that investors don't succumb to brouhaha and don't undergo knee jerk reaction which might cascade into destabilization of economies.

A word to investors

Those who already invested their money in stock markets should refrain from selling at this point. Selling will cause a negative effect on the market and also the current value of the holding will definitely be not as good as what it was and hence investors will have to incur losses. Just forget about investments for a while until the market stabilizes again. This might even take a couple of years. But nobody with head over shoulders should attempt to sell off their shares in such bearish markets.

If recession occurs, its a bad phase for a lot of people, but not for those who want to invest their money in shares, real estate, bullion etc. The costs, prices and rates of almost all shares, houses, assets etc will hit rock bottom and there is no better time to invest than this. One of the ways to end recession is to invest money in such situations.

PS: The author is an MBA in finance and a close observer of global economic and political developments. That's ME :)

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Caste Based Reservations - A Social Stigma

The word reservations brings out extreme emotions among both supporters and opposers of caste based reservation in India. Anything which gives hint of opposition to reservations attracts ire of pro-reservation groups just like what we are witnessing in the case of forthcoming movie "Aarakshan" which supposedly discusses reservation. The bottom line is that if a section of people are given some privileges over others, obviously those who are subject to these privileges never want to loose them and those who don't receive any special treatment naturally show their resentment, regardless of any social inequalities, under-representation, blah blah blah as mentioned in the constitution.

Those who are against reservations fume with the very thought and express their resentment on Dr BR Ambedkar, who was the champion of caste based reservation system in India. I belong to a socially forward community (that's what they say so) and hence was subject to discrimination caused by caste based reservations as I was judged to be somebody who commit atrocities against weaker sections and hence don't need or deserve any privileges today.

So naturally I hated reservations which made me go green with envy over less deserving, less intelligent, less worthy classmates of mine gaining an envious admission in an elite college despite being richer and socially well settled than me, just because of his birth in a so called "weaker section" (I remember that guy committing atrocities against people of my community - against all theories, books and manuscripts supporting reservation). I argued with everybody who supported reservations but with age, maturity, constructive debates, access to information came wisdom enough to understand the reason for this unavoidable thing called reservation.

Speaking about history, untouchability, atrocities on weaker sections were (are still in some places) rampant throughout India during last many centuries. Dalits were traditionally involved in "non-ritual" activities like butchering, scavenging, cleaning due to which they were kept away from temples, water bodies so as not to "pollute" the society. But this inhuman untouchability stayed beyond generations and other sections of Hinduism like brahmins (known for mental ability), kshyatriyas (known for political power), vyshyas (known for economic power), shudras (known for hardword) treated dalits in the same light regardless of occupation.

Dr Ambedkar happens to be one of the brightest scholars India has ever seen but had to fight the entire system to claim what he deserved because he belongs to dalit community. After the struggles he had to face, he wanted a system which could support people of his background as not everybody could fight like him. Infact the revolution he brought about was as powerful and great as independence struggle itself and no wonder he is considered a God by those who avail reservations today.

He identified the problem in the society and hence offered a solution. But neither he nor his generation expected that the solution will create many more problems because of the nature of judgement of who "weaker sections are in the current era"

Dr. Ambedkar, a scholar himself, knew the problem reservations could cause. He understood that the quality of education and service would dramatically diminish if caste was made a criteria instead of merit and hence proposed a initial cap of reservations for 5 years to uplift a generation of downtrodden and oppressed sections. He argued that merit doesn't make any sense until all sections are put in a same level. Completely agreed. But equating social backwardness only with caste background was a historic blunder which every Indian with head over his shoulders will and should acknowledge.

Just like dalits are traditionally oppressed, brahmins are traditionally poor. Kshyatriyas are no longer kings or noblemen after disintegration of princely states in independent India. Vysyas are not the only community doing businesses and shudras are not limited to their sub-caste based vocations anymore. Under these circumstances what should be the criteria to decide who are sufferers and who need support from the Government ?

Brahmins who are known to be oppressors are facing anti-brahminsm movement in states like Tamil Nadu, they are operating sulabh shauchalay (toilet facilities and scavenging - which formed reasons for aboloshing dalits from society). Recently, a person who was favored to be the next Karnataka CM was rubbished by media by saying "being a brahmin is his disadvantage". Same way with other sections of Hindus too. Kshyatriyas are not given any noble status in the society just because their forefathers were rulers, vyshyas are not given additional subsidies and licenses because they belong to so and so community. KR Narayanan, Mayawati etc - eminent dalits are glaring examples to the abolishment of caste paradigm in India today. I so wish to give another example as A.Raja's name (yes, the same 2G scam guy) who now claims that he is framed only because he is a dalit and belongs to oppressed class. Now who are oppressors and who are sufferers ?? Who should get reservation and why ??

Coming back to Ambedkar's vision, 5 year cap for reservation was a valid reform taking into consideration the social strata then. It means a downtrodden family which avails reservation for one generation or two, three, four or even five generations should be settled socially, economically (as that's the goal of reservation). But how many sensible people will agree that reservations for the same family for many more generations to come on a permanent basis necessary ?? If the family is not uplifted even after 6 decades of reservations and pampering, isn't there something seriously going wrong ?? If they are uplifted, isn't there a need to relax reservation to that family ?? Is Government doing anything to know who is uplifted, who is not, who is downtrodden, who is suffering, who needs support, who is under privileged ?

Another senseless argument to provide these blanket reservations on caste basis is to create opportunities to under represented classes. Means some education, job, political position, government offices should have representation from all castes. BUT why do we need representation from all castes ? What has caste to do with the kind of education or job ? Who can be sure that by providing opportunity to only certain communities, every community is represented fairly ? The whole circus called reservations is only to abolish this social stigma called caste system, but on the contrary the same caste system is now exploited to the most to decide percentages, divide society and create polarization - thanks to vote-bank politics.

Parties which openly embrace backward sections, dalits, minorities etc are bound to get votes and that's democracy in India. If a stupid politician abuses Hindus, all muslims will vote for him, if an idiot massacres Muslims, Hindus will vote for him, if somebody abuses brahmins, all so called "oppressed classes" will vote for him. Exit polls, opinion polls decide who wins a constituency by calculating how many people of a certain caste vote there. Under these circumstances, its not a surprise if politicians extend and expand reservations for years, decades, generations, centuries etc based on caste regardless of measuring the success, metrics, need or not. That's the travesty, India is going through currently. Dr. Ambedkar didn't expect this when he proposed reservations.

For a moment, lets assume every caste is equally represented in social offices, education, jobs, politics etc. So what ? How is this beneficial to the country, society, prosperity ? Those who deserve opportunities, those who can change the face of prosperity of the nation, if not given an opportunity will move to some other country, other opportunity and invest their knowledge in developing their new abode. Brain drain, that is. If such intelligentsia (both forward and backward castes) given proper financial and economic support, would have changed the face of India in the last 6 decades of independence.

Indian media shamelessly goes hammers and tongs when a Sir Naipaul, Venky get nobel prizes. Those eminent intelligentsia never acknowledge they are Indians, but we kiss their as**s because India is not made to utilize genuine indigenous merit and glitterati. This can be easily comprehended when one visits government offices, government hospitals etc, where representation from all "castes" reflects diminishing standards of service. But who cares !!!

Even after all this drama, if the weaker sections are genuinely uplifted or not is another story. After SC quota comes another fight as who deserves more reservation - madigas or malas etc. Even shockingly, there are certain castes which want to put themselves strongly under scheduled castes instead of backward castes to avail more reservations. Read: Gujjars of Rajasthan who erupted in a protest few years back for this reason. It means the downtrodden people love to be downtrodden forever and even those who are put under a higher caste wants to demote themselves to a downtrodden and oppressed community. And somebody told me that reservations was all about uplifting communities and providing them a platform of equality so that they can live with same "dignity" like other forward castes do.

I always wonder if all oppressed, backward and weaker sections are willing to forgo their reservations in exchange to all dignified life standards, rights, social status, aggression and superiority that brahmins, vyshyas or kshatriyas enjoy. Any answers ??